With Donald Trump’s recent victory in US elections, his second term as President is set to begin on January 1, 2025, and it’s likely to bring notable shifts to the US dental industry through potential changes in ranging from fluoridation standards and insurance coverage to tariffs and M&A tax policies. However, campaign promises are often subject to revision, and Trump’s policy approach has shown flexibility and unpredictability, making the specifics difficult to predict.
Trump also benefits from a strong Republican majority in Congress, a dynamic not seen since the Affordable Care Act (ACA) passed in 2010. Though the direction of policy implementation is not entirely certain, several of Trump’s stated priorities could directly impact the dental field.
Water fluoridation: Changes on the horizon?
Trump has indicated plans to appoint Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a known critic of fluoridation, to lead health reforms. Kennedy has already hinted at a potential move by the Trump administration to end community water fluoridation, a standard in public health for over seven decades.
This shift would come amid growing skepticism of fluoridation within the professional community, despite continued support from bodies like the American Dental Association (ADA) and the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP). A recent California court ruling also directed the EPA to review the practice’s safety, citing concerns over “unreasonable risks.”
ACA adjustments and dental insurance access
The ACA did not mandate changes to dental insurance, but its overall effects indirectly improved dental access, according to a 2021 study from the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. The study found that ACA reforms led to an increase in dental insurance coverage for adults and children, though the impact on access remained mixed.
Trump is not expected to pursue a full repeal of the ACA, as he attempted in 2017, but may seek targeted amendments. Public support for adding dental benefits to Medicare has increased in recent years, with CareQuest Institute polling showing 90% voter support for this measure.
Favorable climate for dental mergers and acquisitions
Trump’s tax proposals may be favorable for dental professionals considering mergers or acquisitions. Dental M&A experts note that the sector has historically adapted well to changes in political and economic landscapes. Kyle Francis, president of Professional Transition Strategies, anticipates a steady market, while Tusk Practice Sales managing director Ryan Mingus has characterized Trump’s tax policies as beneficial for dental practice owners aiming to sell.
Tariffs and the dental supply chain
Trump’s proposed tariffs, especially those on Chinese goods, may pose challenges to the dental supply chain. Trump has proposed a 10 to 20 percent tax on all imports, with a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, intended to boost domestic manufacturing. For dental practices, these tariffs could increase the cost of imported supplies, potentially shifting demand toward U.S.-made products.
Though aimed at reducing dependency on imports, implementing U.S.-based manufacturing will take time. During the pandemic, the scarcity of PPE highlighted the reliance on imports, and while U.S.-made PPE briefly increased, imports resumed once supply chain issues subsided. Higher tariffs could alter this balance, pushing dental practices toward costlier but locally sourced supplies.
Overall, the dental sector may see significant shifts under Trump’s second term. Industry professionals will need to stay informed on policy developments and prepare to adjust business strategies to meet evolving demands and costs.