In a startling twist, this holiday season is shaping up to be unlike any other in the COVID-19 era. Historically, the weeks between Christmas and New Year’s have been synonymous with surging infections, hospitalizations, and fatalities. However, this year, the dreaded "winter wave" appears to be breaking its predictable pattern.
From September to November, COVID levels in wastewater—considered a reliable metric—were unusually low, accompanied by near-record lows in hospitalizations and deaths. But recent CDC data has shown a sharp uptick in viral activity, sparking speculation about whether this signals the start of a delayed winter wave. Experts remain divided.
Michael Hoerger, a COVID-forecasting expert, suggests this rise may reflect post-Thanksgiving transmission, which could subside quickly. Others, like epidemiologist Michael Osterholm, warn that the virus’s erratic behavior and waning immunity could lead to a surge in the coming weeks. The anticipated peak, if any, might not arrive until early January, far later than previous years.
Unlike flu and RSV, which follow clear seasonal trends, COVID continues to defy prediction. Experts argue that its behavior hinges more on new variants and immunity levels than on seasonal patterns. While uncertainty looms, there’s cautious optimism that this year’s wave will be less severe than past peaks.
As Americans brace for the holidays, the unpredictable nature of COVID serves as both a caution and a source of hope. While this may not be a COVID-free Christmas, the absence of a major wave thus far offers a glimmer of relief during the festive season.